IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very high levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
05/0601Z from Region 3663 (N26W31). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 May, 07
May, 08 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 382 km/s at 05/2048Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 05/2054Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at
05/2021Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 189 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (06 May), quiet to
active levels on day two (07 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (08 May). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (06 May, 07 May, 08 May).
